The 2025 Export Landscape: Growth Amidst Challenges from US Tariffs
In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s goods exports showed a positive recovery, reaching a turnover of US$219.83 billion, a 14.4% increase year-on-year. However, behind this impressive figure, a seismic shift is underway: the United States, our largest export market, is tightening tariff policies and trade defense measures.
Faced with the risk of losing orders and the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains, the existential question for Vietnamese businesses is: how can we sustain export growth in an environment fraught with volatility and new legal risks?
In-Depth Analysis: Impacts and Risks from the US Market
1. The Tariff Shock and Its Domino Effect
The US policy to impose a 10% universal tariff on all imported goods, effective April 2, 2025, is creating immense pressure. For Vietnam, the current tariff rate of around 20% is at risk of being pushed up to 40% if goods are considered transshipments. The impact extends beyond costs, triggering indirect consequences:
Shifting Buyer Sentiment: US importers are increasingly seeking suppliers from other markets to mitigate risks.
Exchange Rate Volatility: The VND may face pressure as the USD strengthens, increasing the real cost of exports.
Logistical Cost Pressure: Already high shipping rates to the US may continue to climb due to more complex inspection procedures.
2. Three Core Principles of New US Trade Policy
The new US landscape focuses on three core elements that Vietnamese businesses must pay close attention to:
Risks Related to Rules of Origin: A majority of exports (e.g., textiles, electronics) rely on imported raw materials (from China, South Korea). This increases the risk of failing to meet origin requirements, being labeled as “tariff circumvention,” and facing punitive tariffs.
Rising Non-Tariff Barriers: The US is intensifying countervailing duty (CVD) and anti-dumping investigations. Businesses lacking transparency or failing to meet technical standards can be easily excluded from the supply chain.
Global Supply Chain Restructuring: The trends of “nearshoring” (moving production closer to home) and “friend-shoring” (shifting production to allied nations) by the US and EU are reshaping the global supply map, reducing reliance on Asia.
An Essential Strategy: Market Diversification as the Imperative Path Forward
To avoid “putting all eggs in one basket,” businesses must implement a dual strategy: deepening engagement with Asian markets while solidifying their position in Europe.
A. Maximizing the Potential of the Asian Market
Strategic Actions:
Leverage FTAs to Expand Market Share: Prioritize exports to Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN through FTAs like the CPTPP and RCEP. Sectors such as seafood, textiles, and processed wood have a significant advantage, provided they strictly adhere to the rules of origin.
Enhance Internal Competitiveness: Invest in green manufacturing technology, digital transformation (ERP, Big Data), and adopt ESG standards. This is key to meeting stringent international requirements, especially in the textile and seafood industries.
Diversify Raw Material Supply Chains: Source and develop supply channels from ASEAN, India, and Bangladesh to reduce dependency on a few traditional markets, thereby increasing flexibility and mitigating risk.
B. Solidifying a Strong Position in the European Market
Strategic Actions:
Leverage the EVFTA Advantage: With a roadmap to reduce 99% of tariffs to 0%, the EVFTA is a golden opportunity. Focus on products with high localization rates like footwear and processed agricultural goods, and proactively prove origin to benefit from incentives.
Meet ESG Standards – A Mandatory Entry Ticket: The EU market is tightening regulations on the environment and labor. Adopting ESG is not only crucial for retaining market share but also for avoiding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) tax starting in 2026.
Strengthen Technological Cooperation: Proactively attract investment and collaborate with the EU in high-tech fields like semiconductors, green hydrogen, and offshore wind power to move up the value chain and create a strategic balance.
A Practical Lesson: The Strategic Pivot of “Shrimp King” Minh Phu
Facing pressure from the US market, Minh Phu Seafood Corporation proactively restructured its markets. The results for the first half of 2025:
This is clear evidence that shifting focus to more stable markets and concentrating on value-added products is a wise strategy.
Conclusion: Diversification – The Key to Sustainable Export Growth
The tariff shock from the United States is not a short-term challenge but a wake-up call about the long-term risks of over-reliance on a single market.
A market diversification strategy is not merely a defensive action; it is the most powerful lever for Vietnamese businesses to optimize FTA advantages, mitigate supply chain disruptions, and upgrade their position in the global value chain. This is the indispensable path to protecting growth and achieving sustainable development.
