Vietnam’s economy in the first nine months of 2025 continues to affirm its impressive resilience amidst a volatile global environment. With an estimated GDP growth rate of 7.85%, Vietnam’s economy demonstrates a rapid, solid, and comprehensive recovery capacity—especially when compared to the general slowdown in growth across many major economies.

1. GDP Growth: A Clear Mark of Recovery

The 9-month GDP growth reached its highest level in many years, thanks to strong contributions from all three main drivers of the economy: consumption, investment, and exports.

• Final consumption increased by 8.07%, becoming a vital pillar driving growth.
• Public investment surged, with disbursement increasing by up to 27.9%, creating a spillover effect into the private sector and the labor market.
• The service sector, particularly tourism, recorded a spectacular step forward with 15.4 million international visitors, a 21.5% increase compared to the same period last year.

2. FDI Inflows Maintain Strong Appeal

Vietnam continues to be a bright spot on the global investment map. The total registered FDI capital reached $28.54 billion, up 15.2%, showing the sustained confidence of foreign investors in Vietnam’s business environment. Notably, disbursed FDI capital reached $18.80 billion, the highest level in the past five years. This capital primarily focused on high-tech industries, electronics, component manufacturing, and renewable energy—key sectors shaping the economy’s competitiveness.

3. Foreign Trade: Export Acceleration, Large Trade Surplus Maintained

International trade activities recorded a powerful surge:

• The total import-export turnover is estimated to reach $680.66 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year.
• Exports reached $348.74 billion, an increase of 16%, while imports reached $331.92 billion, an increase of 18.8%.
• The trade balance continued to record a surplus of $16.82 billion, solidifying Vietnam’s position as an important manufacturing and export hub in the regional supply chain.
• The FDI enterprise sector remains the dominant force, accounting for about 75.5% of the total export turnover.

4. Inflation Under Control, but Pressure Persists

Although the average 9-month CPI only increased by 3.27%, remaining within the control target, several macroeconomic risk factors are emerging:

• The USD/VND exchange rate is under pressure as the US dollar strengthens, increasing by 3.8% compared to the same period.
• Domestic gold prices soared by up to 41.86%, reflecting risk-aversion sentiment and global financial market volatility.

Overall, the flexible management of monetary and fiscal policies has helped Vietnam maintain macroeconomic stability during a period of high volatility.

Outlook for the Last Three Months of 2025: Sustaining Growth, Cautioning Against Global Risks

1. Opportunities for Acceleration

The last three months of the year are forecasted to be a period of strong growth due to seasonal factors and supportive policies:

• Domestic consumption is expected to increase sharply during the holiday season and the New Year.
• Public investment will continue to be accelerated, stimulating aggregate demand and creating more jobs.
• Foreign trade could set a new record, pushing the total annual import-export turnover past $900 billion, reflecting the resilience of the manufacturing-export sector.

2. Challenges: Global Volatility and Exchange Rate Pressure

However, Vietnam’s economy still faces multiple risks:

• The prolonged US-China trade tensions and the trend of protectionism could impact export orders.
• The slowdown in growth in the US and EU puts pressure on international consumer demand.
• Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict raise the risk of a sharp increase in oil prices, affecting domestic production costs and inflation.
• The Fed’s high-interest-rate policy continues to exert pressure on the exchange rate and global investment flows.

3. Overall Forecast

Based on the 7.85% growth foundation in the first nine months, along with decisive steering in public investment disbursement, macroeconomic stability, and export promotion, Vietnam has the basis to aim for an overall annual GDP growth target of approximately 8.3–8.5%, as directed by the Government.

This is a high-growth scenario, demonstrating the economy’s determination for sustainable recovery in a highly volatile global context. If supportive policies are implemented effectively, Q4/2025 could continue to be a breakthrough period, helping Vietnam maintain its position as one of the most dynamic growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region.