Impact of Countervailing Tax: Vietnam’s Seafood Exports Are Slowing Down

Vietnam’s Seafood Exports Slow Down Due to 20% Countervailing Tax

In Q4 2025, Vietnam’s seafood exports are forecast to slow down sharply, reaching around USD 2.19 billion, a drop of over 22% year-on-year. The main reasons are the U.S. countervailing tax of 20%, imposed since August 2025, and the high risk of anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese shrimp.

According to Ms. Le Hang, Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam’s seafood export turnover reached USD 2.7 billion in Q3 2025, up 10% year-on-year but lower than the first two quarters. Cumulatively, the nine-month figure stood at USD 8.36 billion, up 16%, showing that the industry still maintained positive momentum despite increasing cost and tax pressures.

Product Structure: Shrimp and Pangasius Remain Key Export Drivers

Shrimp Grows Strongly but Faces Tax Risks

Shrimp continues to be Vietnam’s leading seafood export, earning USD 3.4 billion, a 22% increase – the highest in three years. However, the countervailing tax and anti-dumping risks in the U.S. market are forcing many enterprises to scale back orders and adjust shipment plans for Q4.

Pangasius Rebounds in CPTPP and Middle East Markets

Pangasius exports reached USD 1.6 billion, up 9%, supported by strong recovery in CPTPP and Middle Eastern markets. Meanwhile, squid, octopus, shellfish, and crab recorded double-digit growth, while tuna exports slightly declined due to raw material shortages and supply chain disruptions from Middle East conflicts.

Export Markets: CPTPP and China Lead the Way

By market, China and Hong Kong remained Vietnam’s largest importers with USD 1.8 billion, up 34%. The U.S. ranked second with USD 1.4 billion, up 8.4%, but showed signs of deceleration in Q3.

Japan imported USD 1.3 billion (up 17%), the EU USD 884 million (up 13%), while South Korea, ASEAN, and the Middle East also maintained double-digit growth.

Notably, CPTPP countries posted an impressive 25% increase, reflecting the effectiveness of free trade agreements (FTAs) in diversifying export destinations.

Challenges: Countervailing Tax, MMPA Regulations, and IUU “Yellow Card”

New U.S. Tax Policies and Import Regulations

Since August 2025, the U.S. has imposed a 20% countervailing tax on selected Vietnamese seafood products. Moreover, the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) will take effect in early 2026, requiring exporters to prove traceable, sustainable, and eco-friendly sources.

EU’s IUU Yellow Card Still Unresolved

The EU’s IUU (Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated) “yellow card” remains in place, continuing to hinder wild-caught seafood exports to premium markets. At the same time, currency fluctuations, rising logistics costs, and intense competition from India, Ecuador, and Indonesia are squeezing Vietnamese exporters’ profit margins.

Strategic Opportunities Amid Challenges

Despite difficulties, VASEP believes there are strategic opportunities for Vietnam’s seafood industry to adapt and sustain growth:

• The EU has relaxed certain technical barriers for farmed seafood, opening growth potential for shrimp and pangasius.

• The CPTPP expansion, with the UK’s accession, allows for greater market diversification and higher-value processed products.

• China continues to show strong demand for fresh and premium seafood, particularly for restaurants and hotels during the year-end season.

Forecast: 2025 Exports to Reach USD 10.5 Billion; Q1 2026 to Decline Further

According to VASEP, Vietnam’s total seafood export turnover for 2025 is expected to reach USD 10.5 billion, up about 5% from 2024. However, Q1 2026 is likely to experience further decline due to the lingering effects of countervailing taxes and MMPA regulations.

From Q2 2026 onward, recovery will depend on Vietnam’s ability to remove the IUU yellow card, ease tax barriers, diversify export markets, and increase the share of high-value processed seafood products.