Vietnam Seafood Exports: Racing Against The Clock Before New US Tariffs Take Effect

Vietnam Seafood Exports: Strong Shift Ahead Of US Tariff ‘Pressure’

In the next two months (May and June 2025), Vietnam’s seafood exports are predicted to undergo a significant strategic shift before the new US countervailing duty policy officially takes effect. This adjustment comes as the overall export picture continues to show positive recovery but is fraught with challenges from trade barriers.

Export Picture In The First 4 Months Of 2025: Strong Recovery But Uneven

According to data from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam’s seafood exports in the first four months 1 of 2025 recorded an impressive recovery with a turnover of 3.3 billion USD, a 21% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In April 2025 alone, export turnover reached 850.5 million USD, up 10%.  

However, this recovery has not been uniform across product groups and markets, especially as instability regarding countervailing duties from the US market is creating many fluctuations.

Shrimp Continues to Lead

 Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of VASEP, stated that shrimp remains the key commodity, contributing 1.27 billion USD in the first four months, up 30% year-on-year. April alone saw shrimp exports reach 330.8 million USD, a 15% increase. This growth stems from strong demand in major markets like China, the EU, and Japan, coupled with gradually recovering shrimp prices due to global supply-demand rebalancing.

Pangasius Maintains Position But Growth Slows

Pangasius, with a turnover of 632.7 million USD (up 9%) in the first four months, maintained its important position but saw growth slow down, especially in April when it reached only 167.7 million USD, showing no increase compared to the same period.

Tuna Faces Raw Material Challenges

 Tuna exports recorded a decrease in April (76.1 million USD, down 12%), although cumulative exports for the first four months still saw a slight increase of 1% (reaching 304.2 million USD). Raw material shortages, particularly due to regulations on the minimum size of skipjack tuna, have limited production and exports.

Key Markets: Bright Spots And The US Downturn

The growth in Vietnam’s seafood exports comes from various markets:

China and Hong Kong were the leading market, reaching 709.8 million USD in the first four months, up 56%. April saw 182.3 million USD, up 29%, mainly due to high-end segment demand for shrimp, crab, and mollusks.

Japan ranked second with 536.6 million USD (up 22%), showing stable growth thanks to value-added products.

The EU (351.5 million USD, up 17%) and South Korea (264.1 million USD, up 15%) also showed good potential, benefiting from preferential tariff policies under the EVFTA and bilateral FTAs.

ASEAN was a bright spot with 218.8 million USD, growing 25%.

However, the US market was a noticeable downturn. Although cumulative exports for the first four months still grew 7% to reach 498.4 million USD, exports to this market sharply decreased by 15% in April, reaching only 120.5 million USD compared to the same period. This decline clearly reflects the negative impact of the current US countervailing duty policy.

US Tariff Pressure And Competitive Challenges

Ms. Le Hang emphasized that the US countervailing duty policy, particularly with high anti-dumping duties (potentially up to 46% for some products), is creating significant pressure on Vietnam’s seafood exports. Key commodities like pangasius and shrimp, which are heavily reliant on this market, are severely affected. Tariffs increase product costs, prompting US importers to consider shifting sources to competitors like India or Ecuador. Furthermore, technical barriers, such as stringent food safety inspections and traceability requirements, also reduce Vietnam’s competitive advantage.

Response Strategies And Market Diversification Opportunities

To minimize the negative impact from the US market, Free Trade Agreements like the CPTPP and other FTAs are playing a crucial role, helping Vietnam expand and boost exports to other markets such as the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. Vietnamese businesses are also actively adjusting their strategies, focusing on deeply processed, value-added products and diversifying export markets to reduce reliance on a single market.

Forecast Of Strong Export Shift In May & June 2025

The most noteworthy point in the short-term forecast is the strong shift expected in the next two months (May and June 2025), right before the new US countervailing duty policy takes effect from July 9, 2025.

Vietnamese businesses are expected to focus on maximizing exports to the US market, particularly for key products like shrimp and pangasius. The goal is to leverage the ‘window of time’ before the new tariff significantly increases export costs. Export turnover to this market is projected to increase by 10-15% compared to April 2025, thanks to urgent contract signings and price adjustment strategies to maintain market share.

Conversely, exports to other markets like China and ASEAN are likely to slow down, with growth rates of only about 3-5%. The main reason is increasing competition from Chinese seafood products. These products, facing high tariffs in the US, are forced to divert consumption to their domestic market as well as neighboring markets like ASEAN. This increased competition will reduce the appeal of Vietnamese products, especially in the low-price segment in these markets.

The EU and Japan markets are expected to maintain stable growth (around 8-10%) thanks to FTA advantages. However, this growth level may not be enough to fully offset the slowdown in the two other major markets, China and ASEAN.

In summary, Vietnam’s seafood industry is facing a strategic transition period, maximizing short-term opportunities in the US market while simultaneously dealing with competitive challenges and adjusting long-term strategies across global markets.