Vietnam’s Export Outlook 2025: Growth Opportunities And Tax Compliance Requirements

References:

• Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam (2025)
• VOVWorld – Vietnam ramps up trade promotion to hit 12% export growth in 2025
• Vietnam Briefing (2025) – Vietnam Manufacturing Tracker & Trade Trends
• WTO Center for Trade and Integration – Vietnam Export Outlook 2025

Entering 2025, exports continue to be a bright spot for Vietnam’s economy amid global economic uncertainties. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first seven months of 2025, the total value of goods exports reached approximately USD 262.4 billion, up 14.8% compared to the same period in 2024. In 2024, the total export value was USD 405.5 billion, an increase of more than 14% from the previous year. The government has set a target of USD 450–451 billion in exports for 2025, corresponding to a growth rate of about 12%.
(Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, VOVWorld, Vietnam Briefing, WTO Center – 2025)

Key export sectors include electronics, textiles and garments, footwear, wood, agriculture and aquaculture products, and mechanical components, with foreign-invested enterprises (FDI) continuing to account for over 70% of total exports. Vietnam is benefiting from the global supply chain restructuring trend, especially the relocation of production out of China, while effectively leveraging free trade agreements (FTAs) such as EVFTA, CPTPP, and RCEP.

However, alongside growth opportunities, export activities in 2025 also face new challenges in tax policy and international compliance:

• Exchange rate fluctuations, logistics costs, and import material costs increase production costs.
• The amended 2024 VAT Law (effective from January 1, 2025) requires enterprises to carefully review VAT refund dossiers, ensuring that invoices, electronic documents, and contracts meet deduction and refund requirements.
• Tax authorities are intensifying inspections on large VAT refunds, requiring proof of transaction authenticity, cash flow, and expense flow.
• New FTAs help reduce import duties in partner markets but also require Vietnamese enterprises to strictly comply with origin rules and related tax documentation.

From a tax advisory perspective, 2025 is a critical period for enterprises to enhance tax management capabilities, including tax planning, transparent document management, and compliance with new regulations. TPM Tax Agency – with extensive experience in advising domestic and FDI enterprises – always accompanies clients with services such as:

• Tax policy consultation, reviewing VAT and other taxes arising from business activities.
• Updating and guiding the implementation of new regulations from the General Department of Taxation, supporting enterprises in effective compliance.

As exports remain a key driver of the economy, proper tax compliance and proactive risk management will help enterprises ensure financial security, optimize profits, and build sustainable advantages in international integration.

Ngân Hồ – TPM Tax Agency